My Lord

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The English that are settled in this country, have always made a variety of objections both against giving any encouragement to the opening of this new branch of commerce, and the engaging in it themselves. They as well as many other people here, consider the state of the Crimea in a very opposite light from that it has appeared in to your Lordship ….

Neighbourhood would be dangerous to settlers in those parts. Their unwillingness to take any share in it, I find, proceeds likewise from the idea, that Russia only means to avail herself of their knowledge and experience, in order to remove the difficulties, which her own want of both would at first occasion; and at the instant she finds herself able to walk alone, she will act towards them as she did in the Persian business. It is natural enough to suppose, that the Russians will throw off every clog to their commerce, as soon as they can, though it is by no means necessary that in a transaction, so widely different as the present from the Persian business, those who engage in it, should be exposed to the same inconveniences. Whether their apprehensions are founded or not, it might however be good policy did it depend upon us, rather to keep things in the channel, in which they have hitherto run, than to encourage the opening any new ones, all the consequences of which cannot easily be foreseen; but if we cannot prevent the Russian trade from taking a new course, we should, in my humble opinion, endeavour to obtain the direction of it. It is evident that, if Russia enjoys this exclusive navigation, it must increase her maritime force. How far it is the interest of Great Britain, that a new naval power should be formed, it may be presumption in me to determine; but as there can be no doubt of the advantage that must ever occur to her from being in a situation to govern events, it is clear to me, that she will be more enabled to do so by obstructing or promoting the progress of the Russian marine on the present occasion, than she would if any other power interferes. It is very probable, that Monsr. Panin may have represented the eagerness of the French in this business, greater than it really is, in order to load us to adopt the views of his court, and to assist her in carrying them into execution; but I am persuaded, from several other circumstances, that he has not stretched this point much. What he proposes is, that the Levant Company should employ an agent, or commissioner, who should settle at Taganrog, where magazines would be provided at the expense of government, and who might contract with the Russian subjects for the products of this Empire, and export them in Russian bottoms, for the account of that Company. In the present state of the Dnieper, it is not possible for the Russians to avail themselves of it to convey any goods to the Black Sea; and the Dniester being totally out of the question, with respect to this Empire, they must confine themselves to the Don, where no other impediment interferes, except a short of land carriage of about forty wrests, and which will cease as soon as a canal between that river and the Wolga is perfected.

If the Turky Company agrees to the idea proposed by M. Panin, I apprehend they need employ the Russian ships no farther than to Constantinople, and from thence carry the commodities in their own to wherever there is a demand for them, Great Britain excepted; and while they are excluded from going thither, the share they may take in this new branch of trade cannot essentially affect that of the Russian Company through the Baltick. Whatever plan we adopt now may be easily altered, whenever the Porte comes to the resolution of opening the navigation to other nations, and we may be even governed in our first settling out by our nearer or more distant prospect of the appearance of that taking place.

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I have the honour to be with great respect

My Lord….

Gunning

The Earl of Suffolk